Don't Trust Analysts
From the New York Times article, “In BP’s Record, a History of Boldness and Costly Blunders”:
BP stepped into another tricky political situation last year, when Iraq offered foreign companies $2 a barrel to help it increase production from the country’s oil fields, which had suffered from years of war and neglect. BP’s competitors blanched at the low price, but Mr. Hayward teamed up with a Chinese state-owned company and accepted the deal.
The chairman of a rival company was so enraged that he called Mr. Hayward and demanded: “Tony, have you gone mad?” BP’s move forced other companies to agree to similar terms. As one analyst noted, it was “disastrous to profitability” for the industry.
The deal referenced happened in November 2009. I’m not sure when these “disastrous” reductions in profits happened:
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